Amidst many discussions and measures to understand the sudden surge of covid 19 cases, the scientists are working on a mathematical model or the same.
Covid Cases To Show Similar Patterns As September Last Year
As per the reports so far, scientists have said that the active symptomatic cases may reach peak by April 15-20. Soon after there will be a decline.
Scientists predict that the decline shall be within a week. This pattern is likely to be similar to the one seen in September last year when 10 lakh cases were recorded.
After noting the patterns of the second wave of Covid 19, the mathematical model suggests that there may be a decline by May end.
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During the first wave of Covid 19 in India, the mathematical model named “SUTRA” suggested that there might a surge of covid cases in August and the peak would be September. And the cases would then lower in February 2021.
Professor Manindra Agarwal from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur who was also a part of the study has said the model used to predict the current wave of coronavirus suggests that mid-April will see the cases reaching a leak.
Prof. Agarwal was also involved in the national Super Model initiative. He said that the peak is expected when the cases reach 80,000 to 90,000 cases per day.
The national supermodel predicted in October 2020 that the pandemic might be in some control by February 2021 with “minimal active symptomatic infections”.
Prof. Manindra Agarwal Explains Second Coronavirus Wave
Explaining the second wave of coronavirus, Agarwal said that there were two reasons by which this might have happened.
The first could be because of the gatherings. The schools, colleges and other working areas were opened up.
The second could be that people started to become more careless. Besides, some Covid mutations spread faster than the previous one.
The mathematical model uses parameters like rate of spread which explains the number of people who can be infected by one Covid positive person.
The second parameter includes Reach. It is the measure of exposure to the level of population.
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The last parameter is the Epsilon which is the ratio between detected and undetected cases.
