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“India may record 2.87 lakh cases per day by February, 2021 without cure”- MIT study

According to a shocking study carried out by researchers of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, India is likely to be the worst-hit country with 2.87 lakh cases of covid-19 getting reported every day in the absence of a vaccine or drug.

These alarming figures were calculated from a study conducted by MIT professors Hazhir Rahmandad and John Sterman, and Ph.D. candidate Tse Yang Lim. For the analysis, they used the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, a standard mathematical model for infectious diseases commonly utilized by epidemiologists. This research took into account data from 84 countries with a population of around 475 crore people.

In another disturbing statement, the study says that by March-May next year, India may see a total number of 20 to 60 crore positive covid-19 patients. With the existing patients and their attendees complaining of poor healthcare facilities including the absence of basic provisions like oxygen masks and cylinders, the fate of the country when the projected figures hit is nothing but dreadful.

Following India, the next worst-affected nations would be the US with 95,400 cases per day, then South Africa with 20,600, Iran will stand at 17,000, Indonesia 13,200, the UK at 4,200, Nigeria at 4,000 while Turkey will witness 4,000, France 3,300, and Germany 3,000 cases.

However, the researchers used a caution notice stating that the numbers were an estimation and shouldn’t be taken as a forecast as thee depend on testing samples and changing policies of nations. This needs to be considered as a potential risk calculator and not an exact prediction.

Aggressive testing and proper precautionary measures instead of negligence and an unbothered attitude by governments can help in successful annexation of the infection, failing which, the estimated numbers will be reached within the projected timeframes.

“We have explored a few projections out to spring 2021 that exclude vaccine and treatment availability,” the MIT researchers said.

The projection of the figures depended on three factors in the study:

  • Current rates and the response of each country,
  • If testing rates are increased at 0.1% per day from July and
  • If current testing rates are not changed and rather the contact rate (the number of people each patient can infect) is taken as 8. (R-naught)

The study has showed that with 0.1% per day increase of testing, prediction of 1.55 million getting affected can come down to 1.37 million.

If the third scenario is taken into consideration, saying that each patient affects 8 people, then the estimated number of positive cases would be 60 crore.

The study says, “Both these scenarios project a very large burden of new cases in the fall (September-November) 2020, with hundreds of millions of cases concentrated in a few countries estimated to have insufficient responses given perceived risks (primarily India, but also Bangladesh, Pakistan, and USA). In contrast, changes in response policies would make a major difference.”

Moreover, researchers around the world believe that the numbers are being under-reported. They’ve warned that hiding cases will only worsen the already grim situation.

They estimated that Covid-19 cases and deaths as of June 18 are, respectively, 11.8 and 1.48 times higher than official reports across the 84 nations considered for the study.

They further included in their study that despite the growing numbers of cases in the world, none of the countries is in position to develop herd immunity within its citizens, giving clarity and weight to the prediction that herd immunity for covid-19 is infact “unachievable”.

“Actual coronavirus cases are far greater than official reports suggest, the majority of people remain susceptible. Waiting for herd immunity is not a viable path out of the current pandemic,” Mr. Rahmandad, co-author of the study, said.

As of June 8th, the total number of cases in the world stood at almost 11.9 million and close to 550,000 deaths while India reported 764,000 positive covid-19 cases with more than 21,000 fatalities.