London: According to a new analysis published by Cambridge University and Public Health England on Friday, the residents of London could see a sigh of relief by June, as it states that the capital city will be free of coronavirus by that time, with only 10-24 new cases getting recorded in a day.
The ‘R’ reproduction rate has fallen to 0.4 in London, with the number of new cases halving every 3.5 days, the Metro newspaper quoted the analysis as saying.
During the initial days of the outbreak, London was considered to be the hub of the virus where the pandemic was expected to be weeks ahead compared to the rest of the world.
Around 200,000 new cases were being reported each day when the lockdown was imposed on March 23. But the new model suggests that it could be reporting none by next month.
However, the North East of England is still in a bad shape as it is recording around 4,000 infections every day. UK is still making progress overall, as data shows the R value in England is 0.75, below the 1.0 set out by Boris Johnson as a requirement for easing lockdown rules. Research suggests the rate in the North East and Yorkshire is 0.8, compared to 0.76 in the South West, 0.73 in the North West, 0.71 in the East of England and 0.68 in the Midlands.
Meanwhile, social distancing norms were seen violated after leaked pictures of people getting packed in underground trains with many passengers not wearing masks went viral raising concerns of all.
The Metro newspaper reported that despite the analysis, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine warned that London’s true infection rate was likely to be “a little bit higher.” Speaking to the BBC Radio 4, he said: “There is some variation around this and there is some uncertainty in this, but what we have observed in London is that case numbers and death numbers have come down faster than in other parts of the country from a considerably higher level. So, I would say it is a little bit higher than that, but it is probably lower than the rest of the country.”
The projection by the PHE-Cambridge is also being questioned as some experts also believe that the rate of infections in “London is extremely unlikely to be so low.”
Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis said, “If people use proper social distancing on public transport, it is safe,” as told to Sky News.
When he was asked about whether the lockdown could be lifted regionally, he said, “Well we’re taking a data and science-led approach at all stages of this. If analysis is correct and London is that much lower than elsewhere it is important we don’t allow that to rise again.” Pushed on whether he would be comfortable to use public transport, Lewis said, “Well if we’re practicing proper social distancing, yes it is safe.”
As of Friday, the number of COVID-19 cases in the UK has increased to 234,441, with 33,693 deaths, the current highest in Europe.
