The wave of Prime Minister Modi’s popularity, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s stern dealing with the law & order situation and the euphoria over the Ram temple has started overriding the caste equations in Uttar Pradesh.
The state has always witnessed the caste factor come into play whenever elections are to be held, but now it is the popularity of PM Modi and CM Yogi Adityananth that is overtaking all other issues.
In the first phase of elections in western UP, where normally the voting pattern of Muslims and Dalits decides the fate of candidates, this time there is a palpable difference because all that seems to be working is the Modi and Yogi factor.
The performance of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidates in this phase will also decide the party’s future. The BSP has tweaked its strategy when it fielded candidates from castes who, otherwise, are believed to be the core voters of the BJP but apparently, candidates are unable to wean away these votes from the BJP’s bag.
For example, in 2014, Muzaffarnagar was won by BJP’s Sanjeev Baliyan by a low margin of 6,400 votes, and Meerut was won by BJP’s Rajendra Agrawal by a margin of around 4,700 votes.
In Muzaffarnagar, where the Muslims form around 30 per cent of the electorate, the BSP has fielded Dara Singh Prajapati, an OBC hoping to corner the votes of his community as well as the party’s traditional Dalit community.
However, the BJP has gained ground in both these constituencies and caste factors have receded into the background. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally in Meerut and Yogi Adityanath’s rally in Muzaffarnagar has turned the tide completely in BJP’s favour.
In Meerut, the BSP has Deovrat Tyagi, a Brahmin against BJP’s Arun Govil, who played Lord Rama in the serial ‘Ramayana’. The BSP nominee is eyeing the support of around 50,000 ‘Tyagi’ voters in Meerut, apart from Dalit and Muslim votes, but sources claim that upper castes and Dalits are preparing to vote for BJP this time.
In an interesting development, this time, the Muslim mood towards the BJP has also softened to an extent and even Dalits are veering towards BJP after being disillusioned by Mayawati’s indecision.
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