The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a shift from the dry and cold January as February anticipates higher temperatures and above-normal rainfall.
This change may affect the main rabi crop, wheat, which is sensitive to warmer climates during its flowering stage. IMD’s analysis labeled January as the fourth coldest and ninth driest month since 1901, with reduced cold wave intensity due to prolonged fog and lower cloud conditions.
In February, above-normal rainfall is predicted across the country except for parts of south peninsular India. North India, including key wheat-growing regions, is likely to experience above-normal rainfall. Additionally, minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal in most parts of the country, affecting the possibility of cold wave days over central India.
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The article notes that the El Nino conditions in the Equatorial Pacific are expected to weaken by the end of April, potentially boosting the monsoon. Rainfall during January 2024 was significantly below normal across India, with the highest deficit recorded in the Northwest region. Conversely, the South peninsula experienced higher-than-average rainfall.
Despite the persistent fog and low cloud cover in January, which reduced cold wave conditions, isolated areas still experienced severe cold days, resulting in fatalities in Bihar. IMD data highlights unusual maximum and minimum temperatures during January, with minimum temperatures above normal and maximum temperatures below normal on most days.
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