Northeast India is the rainiest pocket in India during the southwest Monsoon season and invariably observes events of excess rains along with flooding conditions and Brahmaputra being in spate more than once in a season.
Presently, the state of Northeast India has been witnessing deficient rains with the highest deficiency being recorded at Arunachal Pradesh at -38 percent, Assam and Meghalaya at -27 percent and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura (NMMT) at -7 percent.
Recently, many parts of Northeast India including the states of Assam, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura saw intense flooding which had wreaked havoc over these areas. However, now rains have reduced which has resulted in some relief.
Presently, Southwest Monsoon has covered the entire country. In fact, in the last two three days, Southwest Monsoon took a big leap and reached Rajasthan which is the last spot of Monsoon arrival in view of the cyclonic circulation which has been persisting in Rajasthan region.
The same cyclonic circulation under the influence of a Western Disturbance will shift up which will further result in the upward shift of the Monsoon trough, close to the foothills right from Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sikkim, Sub Himalayan West Bengal up to Arunachal Pradesh and Assam.
Such situation is conducive for extensive rains with heavy to very heavy spells of showers over Northeast India particularly over Assam and Arunachal Pradesh next week.
In fact, under such circumstances along with excessive rains in catchment areas, Brahmaputra river starts to overflow.
Thus, heavy rains are in the offing between July 1 and 5, which will be heavier on July 3 and 4, which may result in flood like situation in Northeast India.
The situation will only get reverted when a system forms in the Bay of Bengal which will cause the trough to shift downward resulting in reduction of rains.
