The waning immunity among people in India who managed to gain natural immunity through Covid infection could result in a small ripple of Covid infections in the coming months.
However, the researchers from IIT Hyderabad and IIT Kanpur stated in their SUTRA model for forecasting the course of pandemics that the surge of Covid infections will be very unlikely to be as significant as the current Covid wave in China.
According to senior researchers from IIT Hyderabad, Dr M Vidyasagar and Dr Manindra Agrawal, the natural immunity gained by the majority of Indians during the previous three Covid waves would provide adequate protection from new Omicron variants, particularly BF 7, which is responsible for the surge of infections in China.
“According to our models, more than 98 percent of Indians have natural immunity. So, we do not see any reason of concern. Over time, some percentage will lose natural immunity, and it may cause a small ripple, but it is very unlikely that a significant rise will occur,” members of SUTRA consortium said.
The current increase in Covid infections in China, Brazil, South Korea, Japan, and the US was caused by new mutations and a percentage of the population losing natural immunity, as was the case in India a few months ago.
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Natural immunity was absent in 25% of the Korean population, 40% of the Japanese population, and 20% of the US population. As a result, the ongoing Covid wave is expected to continue in these countries for some time because a significant percentage of the population lacks natural immunity.
According to the IIT researchers, countries with high levels of natural immunity have not seen a significant increase in case numbers in the past. “In China, due to its zero-Covid policy, natural immunity did not develop,” Dr Manindra Agrawal said.
Numerous studies conducted by various research organizations demonstrated that natural immunity outperformed vaccine-induced immunity. During the Delta and Omicron-driven Covid waves, a large portion of the Indian population was exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and developed natural immunity.
According to a CCMB and NIN Hyderabad-centric study, a year into the Covid pandemic, more than half of the population in Hyderabad had gained natural immunity through SARS-CoV-2 infection by March 2021. As per the sero-surveillance study conducted by NIN in collaboration with ICMR and the State government, immunity levels against SARS-CoV-2 were around 60% to 62% across Telangana.
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